Not Enough

BusinessWorld Opinion

Posted on 09:05 PM, September 08, 2010

Calling A Spade... -- By Solita Collas-Monsod

"Not enough"

The government launched its Fourth Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals, showing the Philippines’ pace of progress with regard to the 21 targets and 60 indicators that are being used to determine whether these MDGs are being met. President Noynoy Aquino and House Speaker Sonny Belmonte led the list of attendees (together with former President Fidel Ramos) -- which presumably sent the structural message that achieving the goals were of the highest importance to our leadership.

In his speech, PNOY emphasized that it was the responsibility of every Filipino citizen, not solely of the goernment, to help achieve these goals.

It would have helped if the President had reminded us of what the stakes are -- so that people would not simply dismiss the speech as just motherhood statements.

It has been estimated, for example, that achieving these goals means, among others, that more than 10 million people would be lifted out of poverty (between 2006 and 2015); more than 2 million people would be no longer go hungry; 240,000 more children would be able to reach their fifth birthday; 12 thousand mothers’ lives would be saved, and almost 7 million more people would have access to safe water. That would surely make everyone sit up and take notice.

The report, based on actual performance versus the target levels, evaluates the probability of achieving the goals (broken down into several targets and even more indicators) -- as either "low," "medium" or "high" -- using methodology suggested by the UN Statistical Insitute for Asia and the Pacific (SIAP).

But the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) has another methodology which is more useful, and certainly more colorful and more specific: it determines whether a country is an "early achiever" (a dark green circle) or "on track" (a light green triangle) or "off-track slow" (an orange square) or "off- track regressing" (a red upside down triangle), depending on, respectively, whether the achievements have already been achieved, or will be achieved on or before the target date of 2015, will be achieved, but after 2015, or whether the country is actually regressing (moving backward) rather than progressing. Moreover, the year the target will be achieved (given the country’s present pace of progress) can also be derived.

For example: MDG Goal 1a, which is to halve the proportion of population living below the poverty threshold is, in the Fourth Progress Report, rated as of "Medium" Probability. Using the ESCAP method, the country’s progress toward this goal is rated as off-track, slow, and will be achieved, at current pace, only in 2023 -- or eight years after 2015. With regard to the population living below the food or subsistence threshold, the probability of attaining the target is classified as "High"; but using the ESCAP method will tell us that using the country’s official poverty data (which should not be used because the poverty data over time are not comparable), the target will be achieved by 2011; and using the Balisacan estimates (which can be compared over space and time) will show that the target will be achieved by 2016, and therefore the country is off-track, slow.

And if one thinks that "off-track, slow" means a delay of one to eight years, think again. The probability of achieving the goal of universal completion of primary or elementary education is considered "Medium" as measured by the cohort survival rate; using the ESCAP methodology reveals that not only is the country "off-track, slow," but that at its current pace of progress, it will achieve the target only -- are you ready for this, reader? -- by 2070. The elementary school education completion rate, which has a "Medium" probability in the report, will be achieved only in 2075.

Or take MSG Goal 5, which is to improve maternal health, as measured by the maternal mortality ratio, and the contraceptive prevalence rate. The report rates the probability of achieving these targets by 2015 as both "Low." But using the ESCAP methodology tells us that at the current rate of progress, reducing maternal mortality ratio by three-fourths from its 1993 levels will be achieved not in 2015, but in 2064; while doubling the contraceptive prevalence rate from its 1993 levels will occur only in 2048.

Clearly, saying that the probability of achievement is "Medium" gives us a false sense of security, and makes these development challenges seem picayune; and considering a goal as having a "Low" probability of achievement is not enough. We have to be aware of what the time horizons are. Because it is one thing to say that the probability of having 100 children who started Grade 1 reach grade 5 is "Medium"; but it is shocking to hear that this so-called 100% target cohort survival rate"can be achieved only in 2070, or 55 years after the target date of 2015.

In other words, the Philippine performance in these areas is unacceptable, and must be reversed. It is not enough to say we will double or triple our efforts, because even then, that will not guarantee that the targets will be met. It is not enough to say that without corruption, there will be no poverty. Integrity is not sufficient. Commitment (political will) and competence are at least as important.