With Inflation Surging, Philippine Bank May Need to Tighten Policy
- Roadwork in Manila
- Bloomberg News
Inflation in the Philippines spiked to a 30-month high in May, approaching the top of the central bank’s target range and raising the odds of further tightening steps ahead.
The consumer price index rose 4.5% on-year in May, its quickest pace since November 2011, on higher prices of food and other commodities, as well as housing. Economists were expecting a reading of 4.2%, while the central bank had forecast a reading between 3.9%-4.7%.
While CPI remains within the bank’s 3.0%-5.0% target range for the year, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr. said the data confirm what the central bank has been saying for months: Quick gains in prices are narrowing the room to keep interest rates at record lows.
“We will not hesitate to adjust policy settings should the inflation target be at risk,” Mr. Tetangco said.
The Philippine economy has been among the fastest-growing in Asia, but some worry it’s at risk of overheating.
At its last two meetings, the BSP has raised banks’ reserve requirements by one percentage point each time, seeking to slow money supply that has grown more than 30% from a year earlier in every month since last July.
Mr. Tetangco said the central bank will look for signs that inflation in food and other commodities is driving up prices of other items, and will watch what other central banks in Asia are doing.
The BSP has held its benchmark repurchase rates at record lows of 3.5% for overnight borrowing and 5.5% for overnight lending since October 2012.
Many economists now think the BSP will raise repo rates by one-quarter percentage point at its June 19 meeting, with a similar increase later in the year. That would seek to ensure that inflation next year stays within the 2015 target of 2.0%-4.0%.
Glenn Maguire, ANZ’s chief economist for Asia Pacific, said the BSP’s patience “must be waning” for just tightening liquidity via reserve requirement ratios. That would make adjustments to repo rates or special deposit accounts – a money-market tool the central bank uses to siphon liquidity from the system — more likely.
Possible tightening via special deposit accounts “is now surely in play. The timing of a repo rate hike could now potentially be brought forward,” Mr. Maguire said.
Michael Wan, an economist at Credit Suisse, said the BSP is likely to raise reserve requirements by another full percentage point later this month — to 21% — and predicted a half-percentage-point increase in special deposit account rates in the second half of the year.
The central bank estimates that its two recent increases in banks’ reserve requirements siphoned some $2.7 billion from the system — compared to around $11.4 billion released into the system last year, when the BSP limited access to its special deposit accounts. Another hike in the reserve ratio would siphon off some $1.3 billion of liquidity.
Trinh Nguyen, an economist with HSBC, said it’s almost certain the BSP will have to tighten policy soon “to temper inflationary pressures.” She expects overnight borrowing rates to rise to 4.0% in the second half of the year, and banks’ reserve requirement ratio to rise to 21%.
Comment:
The government blames hoarders and profiteers i.e. business. It should blame itself with misguided and utterly senseless policies!
BIR issues guidelines for importer, broker accreditation
All applications for accreditations will have to be filed directly with the ARMD with applicants appearing personally at the unit.
Processing of application will take 15 working days. Once approved, the ICC and BCC will be valid for three years, unless revoked or cancelled earlier.
The ARMD will conduct periodic verification of compliance by accredited importers and brokers on a semestral basis or more often if necessary, RMO 10-2014 said.
BIR’s Systems Development Division (SDD) will develop a script for the regular extraction of data from existing BIR information technology systems to facilitate the ARMD’s conduct of the periodic compliance verification and tracking of, among others, data that will be transferred to the Data Warehouse Systems Operations Division (DWSD).
The DWSD will then check and accept the script developed by SDD for the regular extraction of tax compliance data of taxpayers who are applying for accreditation or who have been accredited after complying with the existing issuance on script turnover procedures and requirements.
Disaccredited importers or brokers can file for a reaccreditation one year after being disaccredited. They can also file for reconsideration with the Internal Revenue commissioner on any decision of the assistant commissioner for Collection Service.
The ICC and BCC may also be cancelled or revoked by the BIR upon discovery of any valid or compelling causes or reasons to do so.
Customs suspends 115 importers, brokers
DOF easing importer accreditation procedures
April 30, 2014
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Disaccreditation of importers
Importer, broker accreditation extended
Brokers’ strike
Some brokers’ groups began a strike on June 26 with the intention to carry the activity through June 30, in protest of the new DOF, BIR and BOC accreditation regulations.
The groups along with the Chamber of Customs Brokers, Inc. (CCBI) were called to a meeting by Finance Undersecretary Carlo Carag on Friday.
Samson Gabisan, CCBI executive vice president, told PortCalls in a phone interview CCBI members are not joining the brokers’ holiday.
In the Friday meeting with the DOF, Gabisan said CCBI requested the accreditation extension be moved to December 31.
CCBI also asked for the “synchronization” of BIR and BOC requirements for accreditation to avoid redundancies.
Slow application
As of June 17, Uvero said only 600 applicants have been processed by the BIR (see related story below).
Moreover, Flores said AMO received letters from stakeholders who fear non-processing of their shipments because the importer/customs broker was not able to comply with the deadline due to lack of requirements.
Importer, broker accreditation extended by another month
on August 1, 2014 or the date of expiration as indicated in the original BOC accreditation, whichever is earlier.”